Football Betting Tips
What an amazing start to the season! Just a few weeks in and our football tips are paying off! Make sure to send in some of your betslip pics so we can share them on Facebook and Twitter. All of the writers here are professional tipsters, united under the Tips Daddy brand.
Our favourite kind of tip is our accumulator tips which have been going especially well. We have also recently been doing Sky Super 6 predictions which we have come very close on! Stay tuned for updates regarding these.
Football Betting Tips
Tips Daddy has the best football tips in the business, with each prediction being carefully generated based on recent form, historical stats, breaking news on player injuries etc. This number and data crunching enables us to produce tips which are of a high quality.
What time do you post football tips?
Before midday the Tip Daddy stat monkeys are hard at work analysing the days football. We post at around midday for the next days matches.
What goes into your predictions?
We look at recent form, past meetings between the two sides, recent news like injuries and other factors which may affect the chances. We then select bets which offer value which over the long term will make you money.
What goes into selecting the bet?
Lets say we think a team is going to win, the odds offered may not offer value to the punter. So we look to alternatives, like the both teams to score and over/under markets. That way we select a bet which offers long term value. By long term value we mean bets which if made over and over across the season the punter will end up with a profit at the end of the season. Of course luck can affect anything in the short term and across one match but in the long term we are profitable. This is the first season of this website and we will be posting detailed profit records for you to analyse in the autumn.
How do you select your free bets?
There is no need to risk your own money when betting, you should always look for a relevant free bet. The free bet offers we show you are picked based on bookies we think you may not have an account with and so there is an easy way for you to reduce your risk.
Whats your record of success for your football tips?
During the winter we will be publishing our complete record of football tips for you to view our success rates and profits won.
Whats your football predictions for the Premier League this season?
The odds of Hull winning the 16/17 Premier League are 1500/1. They are the least favourite to win, yet last year the least favourite was 5000/1. The odds have dropped dramatically. We all know why – Leicester’s win means that everyone is betting on outsiders to win! Yet the chances of an outsider winning this year are exactly the same as an outsider winning last year. Not much has changed yet the market prices have changed. From this price discrepancy you can make a tidy profit this season.
The shortening of odds at one end of the market implies that the odds at the other end of the market are lengthening. The favourite this year is Man City at 5/2, last year the favourite was Chelsea at 13/8. This is a 35% increase in the favourites odds. Bookies profit margins are usually about 5-6% so an increase of this order of magnitude is definitely in the punters favour.
Bookies are forced to do this when punters bet on long shots. Bookies are currently running tens of millions of pounds worth of risk on the event that Hull City will win which could indeed happen. Therefore they are forced to shorten the odds in order to reduce this risk. A 1500/1 bet translates into a less than 1% chance of occurrence. If this is now increased to a 2% chance of occurrence (by shortening of odds) then this extra 1% must be added to another market ie a favourite. In total the bookies odds will add up to around 105% which represents the odds of all occurrences plus a 5% profit margin. Anything that goes over 105% must be deducted otherwise the bookie becomes uncompetitive as there are lot of bookies for punters to take advantage of.
Even big events have not made the odds shift. For example Paul Pogba moving to Man Utd has only seen their price drop modestly from 4/1 to 3/1 over the last few weeks.
Recent changes affecting betting tips
Germany midfielder Leroy Sane has completed his move to Manchester City for a fee of £37m. Sane scored eight goals in 33 Bundesliga appearances last season as Schalke finished fifth. This move has had no effect on the market! You can see the odds of Man City to win increasing over time:
Here is Man City’s likely lineup with Sane included:
This is a formidable force to contend with. While Sane may be a rough diamond, the man to polish it is surely Guardiola. Anyone betting on minnows this season is wasting their money. Guardiola is slowly changing his squad to deal with the upcoming season and the Spaniard appears to be the manager who will be close to the top of the spending leagues this transfer window. If Pogba fails to arrive at Man Utd then he will be top.
How does spending on wages affect your football predictions?
Performance in the Premier League is closely correlated to spending on players wages. While money can’t buy the title as Leicester demonstrated, it certainly helps. Over 80% of top 4 positions in the Premier League have been won by teams with the top 4 wage bills that season. Clubs like Leicester can win occasionally, but most will fall well short most seasons.
Some may be thinking that the reason that Man City’s odds are higher is because there are so many likely contenders this season. Namely Man United, especially with Pogba likely to arrive.
Football tips stats
Here are the head to head stats between Man City and Man United:
|Man Utd Wins||Draws||Man City Wins|
This certainly supports the idea that Man United will be contenders this season. Mourinho vs Guardiola will be a sight to behold and the importance of the Manchester derby will has doubly increased.
Football tips – Bet on Man City!
The fact is though the stats above are not a reflection of Man City’s recent form. The emergence of City in recent years will undoubtedly continue. Spending £200 million on their football academy complex that includes a full-size pitch, a gym, swimming pools, etc, City can now boast having one of the finest football centres in the world. Their future is assured and you should structure your betting around Man City’s dominance in order to maximise profits.